New Expectations for Romney in the South

The expectations game is starting all over again for Mitt Romney. A wave of new polls shows the former Massachusetts governor is in the hunt to win Republican presidential primaries Tuesday in Mississippi, Alabama or both.

We've seen this movie before, just last week when it seemed Romney might pull off a counter-intuitive victory in Tennessee. Instead, he barely squeaked by in must-win Ohio ? and the night didn't seem quite so triumphant.

It would be a massive understatement to say Romney, a Mormon from the northeast, is not a natural fit with the GOP primary electorate in the South. Nearly three-quarters of Tennessee primary voters on Super Tuesday were white evangelical or born-again Christians and 41 percent were "very conservative." In Massachusetts last week, the total in each category was 15 percent. In Mississippi in 2008, 69 percent of Republican primary voters were born again or evangelical Christians.

No wonder Romney calls the Southern primaries "a bit of an away game."

Romney has less to lose than Newt Gingrich, who has staked his campaign on winning in the South, and Rick Santorum, who contends he offers the sharpest conservative contrast to President Obama. Both lag Romney in delegates and can't afford to fall further behind.

What Romney needs, however, is a surprise win or two that will finally convince Gingrich, Santorum and wary GOP voters that he really does have this thing locked up.

?Jill Lawrence

NATIONAL JOURNAL?S PRIMARY REPORT

Santorum Wins Kansas
[National Journal, 3/10/12] With support from tea party activists and those opposed to abortion rights, Santorum rode to victory in Kansas, throwing a wrench in Romney's plans to win the state and show he can be viable in the South. Santorum's took in 51 percent of the vote with 99 percent of precincts reporting.

Romney Wins Guam, Mariana, Virgin Islands Delegates
[National Journal, 3/10/12] Romney won 18 delegates frm his wins in Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands and seven delegates from the U.S. Virgin Islands on Saturday.

Signs of Stress in Newt's Campaign
[Politico, 3/10/12] Although he publicly says he's in it for the long haul, it's clear that Gingrich's campaign is getting a bit tired in the face of what's increasingly seeming like an insurmountable challenge.

Ann Romney's Dual Roles: Character Witness and Political Messenger
[National Journal, 3/11/12] Ann Romney has a softening effect on the often stiff and awkward public persona of her husband. National Journal's Naureen Khan writes about the effect Ann has on her husband's campaign, both on the stump and behind the scenes.

GOP Hopefuls Look South for Next Contests
[Associated Press, 10/11/12] The next two serious battleground states will be Alabama and Mississippi. Those once unglamorous Southern primary states will be thrust into the spotlight on Tuesday as no candidate managed to get a clear lead from this weekend's contests.

Santorum: With Economy Improving, Foreign Policy May Be Dominant Issue
[National Journal, 3/10/12] In a shift from his previous focus on the economy, Santorum pointed to the possibility of Iran gaining nuclear weapons capacity as a possible new most pressing issue for the November general election. Santorum framed himself as a potential commander-in-chief in contrast to Romney's CEO.

Rick Santorum, Kansas, and the Apogee of the Caucus Strategy
[Slate, 3/10/12] Slate's Dave Weigel looks at the delegate math coming out of Kansas and finds that even though Romney may be winning more delegates in sheer numbers, Santorum performs far better in caucuses. But as the series of GOP caucuses comes to an end, Santorum will have to figure out how to win in primaries as well.

Mitt Romney's Humor: An Appreciation
[The Atlantic, 3/10/12] Those awkward statements, like remarking on the height of the trees in Michigan, that we all see as Romney's gaffes? Molly Bell writes that they may not be gaffes at all ? rather, they're evidence of Romney's wry, dark sense of self-depricating humor.

In GOP Nomination Race, Geography Has Been Destiny
[New York Times, 3/10/12] Although it's possible to predict with some accuracy where the candidates will win based on the demographic makeup of each state, Nate Silver writes that an even better predictor of performance may in fact be where that state is located in the U.S.

Mitt Romney's Spotify Playlist
[New York Daily News, 3/10/12] Mitt Romney released his Spotify playlist, with 25 songs that he (or his campaign) has chosen to signify his run for president. It's got hits from Johnny Cash, Carrie Underwood and Kid Rock ? but what do all those artist picks say about his soul?

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/expectations-romney-south-083839659.html

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